Advanced Risk and Uncertainity Management

Question: Describe about the "Mfb Melbourne Fire Brigade". Answer: Introduction This task aims at analyzing the risk assessment in Melbourne Fire Brigade through comparison of models. In addition to that the eventual outcome of fire through probality matrix, risk analysis and risk register are used to explain further on the operations and activies of the fire station. The risk structure break down provides a general summary of the whole organization in stages and easier way. The essentials and challenges in the model are pointed out in the course of the paper. Melbourne fire brigade (mfb) Risks assessment models Fig 1 Systems And Simulation Models Risk levels indicated in the table above form the basis for deciding on whether it is necessary to improve existing controls or introduce new ones , as well as the timing of actions : The strategy to be followed in the risk assessment includes the following steps : Danger Identification Risk valuation according to the possibility of becoming accident and the outcomes of the catastrophe Deduct tolerable The Risk Regulation Strategy must include guidelines for : Combat the risks at base Adapt work to the individual , together with the choice of accessories and techniques of work and production , with a view in particular to getting rid of monotonous and recurring work in order to reduce its effects on overall health . Take into consideration the development of technology . Replace the hazardous by involving minimal risk Adopt procedures that put combined effort protection to the individual . Giving suitable instructions to workers ( Tanaka , Akimoto , Inoue , 2012 ) . This plan should be evaluated routinely to make changes if changes in jobs . The company must have for specifications of the Act with an overview of the final results of the Risk Assessment ; Endeavours should be intended to reduce the risk , determining the necessary investments . Measures to reduce the risk should be carried out in a given period . When the measured risk is associated with extremely harmful consequences , further action will be needed to establish more precisely the likelihood of harm as a basis for determining the need for improved control measures ( Stockstrom Herstatt , 2012 ) . Currently Used Model Is Firebrigade Intervention Model Risk assessment model Fig.2 This model inputs and outputs are : Inputs Initial evaluate and periodically each of the production procedures of the business from a proactive point of view . Analyze modern production processes from model , eliminating hazards at their source Control processes from a precautionary point of view . Remove all of the the dangers which can be technically and monetarily possible , setting up plans to eliminate the dangers that simply cannot be today , it may be the average and long lasting . Establish collective safety measures to keep workers off from the dangers that could not be eliminated Establish combined effort safety measures for protection Systematically create basic safety inspections ( Hu , 2013 ) . Inform personnel of the risks and hazards to which they are subjected . Adequately educate workers in the utilization of protective measures established Periodically assess all technical measures taken to guarantee continuous development . Outputs High Setting of specifications and general or used on processes or alternatively methods specific administration areas . This model requires to be followed to the later and if any stage is skipped the whole model collapse . Procedures preventive approach requires highly sophisticated apparatus and very costly in the acquisition of protective materials , vehicles , alarm system and all the necessary equipment required for its operation ( Vasilcovschi Munteanu , 2014 ) . There is need for setting specifications and contractual commitments , contracts and subcontracts , to ensure information and coordination on prevention . Inner rules as well as processes for the allocation of staff ( completely new hires or even transforms job ) , guaranteeing fitness ( prior healthcare evaluation ) , working out , needed training , guidance in the work of the job to fill and obligatory information risks in the same . Specifications as well as methods for working with special hazards and formalize work permits . Rules and also operating proce sses essential to enforce fulfillment with preventive measures set up in the standard growth and development of the activity ( research of incidents as well as incidents , basic safety information sheets tasks , etc . Set in conjunction with the specialized office preventive routine maintenance programs and reviews premises , equipment and also facilities ( Heckerman Mamdani , n .d . ). Comparison There first motel shows a centralized way of handling the risk of fire at hand while the second is a structure that has been disintegrated to handle the risk . The current model is structure in stages while the model subject is a way in which without a certain procedure followed will still function normally . No need to improve preventive action . However , improvements should be considered more cost-effective solutions or which do not have a significant economic burden . Periodic checks are required to ensure the effectiveness of control measures is maintained . Risk assessments for which there is no specific legislation : We must use international or national standards or technical official body or bodies of reputable guides . Risk assessments that require specific methods of analysis : contemplating serious risks such as fires , explosions , etc . which they have specific legislation ( Xiao , 2012 ) . Risk break down structure for fire risk analysis Risk break down structure for fire risk analysis This is the arrangement of risks from the top to the lowest by decomposing the highest risks as you move down the structure. The fire station organization It includes: inadequate funding due to allocation of less revenue by the county government of Melbourne and few or no wellwishers input. Activies schedules maybe unorganized or less defined. Unrealistics goals for the organization that may lead to failure. External risks It includes: Catastrophic occurances such as earthquakes or even storms. Weather conditions that might be unfavourable such as windy conditions that spread fire faster and randomly. Workers issues that includes sickness, strikes, inadequate equipments and so forth Technical Risks It includes: Untested technology that might go wrong or give negative results. Performance risks where workers input may be below par. Quality of technology that is not upto the level of dealing with big fire situations. Management risk It includes: Planning of resources and time because these two are important in ensuring that the fire risk is eliminated completely if the allocation is right. Cost estimates maybe overestimated or underestimated whereby the risk of failure is more. Budget and equipments is important in planning ahead and ensuring efficiency operation of the fire brigade station. Risk Analysis A . Category of work routines a preliminary danger evaluation step is to prepare a list of work activities , grouping them in a rational and also feasible way ( De Marchi , 2003 ) . One possible way of classifying function activities is as follows : 1 . Exterior centers of the company Areas . 2 . Levels in the production process or perhaps in offering a service . 3 . Job and structured maintenance . 4 . Projects defined , for instance , forklift wheelers . For each and every work , activity could possibly be necessary to have data , inter alia on the following elements : to . Tasks . Its length and rate of recurrence . b . Areas exactly where work is done . c . Who does indeed the work , both of them long lasting and informal . d . Some people who could possibly be affected by work actions . And . Training programs has personnel had on the performance of his obligations . Qualitative techniques : are characterized by not switching to numerical computations . They can be general methods together with relative methods . Semi qualitative methods : the will need to initiate a quantitative assessment concerning frequencies of occurrence of a particular occasion because they are known as strategies to determining number of occurrence , or epitomized by resorting to a category of the areas of a facility depending on a series quantifying damages index : dangers indices . The following table gives a simple method for estimating the risk levels according to their estimated probability and its expected consequences ( Chen , 2013 ) . Risk Register is an application used in management of risks and also known as risk log. Risk registers maybe either qualitive or quantitive depending on the probalities; qualitive is the level used medium, low or high while quantitive is the numerical such as MFB case as shown below. Melbourne Fire Brigade Risk Register RISK CATEGORY AND THE NUMBER 1. RISK DESCRIPTION RISK CONSEQUENCES RAW RISK (1-5) LOWEST = 1 HIGHEST = 5 MITIGATION/ CONTROL RESIDUAL RISK AFTER MITIGATION/ CONTROL (1-5) LIKELY HOOD(L) CONSQ UENCES(C) L*C LIKELY HOOD(L) CONSQ UENCES(C) L*C INADEQUATE FUNDS 2. Lack of equipments and unable to deliver services promptly Leads to loss of more property and lives due to delayed response 3 3 9 Through policies and national government support more sources of funds are available. 2 3 6 UNORGANISED ACTIVIES SCHEDULE 3. Activities are performed in a disoganised manner lacking priority Leads to loss of important properties or important things are done last 4 5 20 Through use of to do list and project managers the organization of the station can be achieved. 2 5 10 UNREALISTIC GOALS 4. The goals might be too high to be achieved within a certain timeframe Leads to lack of ambition and failure to do things that are necessary 3 4 12 Engaging all the relevant parties before setting goals minimize possibility of unrealism. 2 4 8 CATASTROPHIC OCCURRENCE 5. This is unexpected occurances beyond human being control Inability to reach the desired point in time and increased delay 3 4 12 The forecast technology and having a cushion in case such occurance does happen. 2 4 8 WEATHER CONDITIONS 6. Unfavourable weather conditions such as sunny and windy These conditions acceretate forest fires and leads to uncontrollable results 2 4 8 Using the data from metreological department often. 1 4 4 WORKERS ISSUES 7. Sometimes workers get sick or engage in strikes This may lead to little or no work done that may have dire consequences such as more deaths 4 5 20 Having extra workers and standby employees to help ease pressure if one is unavailable 3 5 15 UNTESTED TECHNOLOGY 8. Technology that is yet to be proved right or effective and is implemented There maybe system failure or lack of co-ordinated work 2 5 10 Making sure that a certain procedure is used before a new technology is implemented. 1 5 5 PERFORMANCE CRISIS 9. This might occur due to demotivated workers or lack of necessary equipments May lead to increased property loss or more deaths 3 5 15 Using incentives and bonuses to motivate workers 2 5 10 QUALITY OF TECHNOLOGY 10. Low quality or outdated technology There times when such a technology may lead to loss of property or machine failures 3 3 9 Ensuring stratergies to implement up-to-date technology are put in place 2 3 6 PLANNING OF RESOURCES AND TIME 11. Where the planning is disorganized and lack a motive There are few accomplished tasks and less co-ordination of to do list 3 4 12 Having personnel specialized in planning such as project managers 2 4 8 COST ESTIMATES 12. Where there are overestimation or underestimation of costs There might be misconception or ill advised activities done due to tese wrong figures 4 5 20 Having accountants and financial analysts look at their costs before estimating 3 4 12 BUDGET AND EQUIPMENTS OR APPARATUS 13. The budget might be condensed and with no ability to accommodate more repetitive and spontaneous activities There might be few accomplished tasks or some situation needing dire assistance left for self results to be obtained. 3 4 12 Devising methods to increase revenue and income and appealing to more well wishers. 2 4 8 Probability index using probability formula P R O B A B I L I T Y I N D E X FREQUENT LIKELY OCCASSIONAL SELDOM UNLIKELY A B C D E S E V E R I T Y CATASTROPHIC I 1 2 6 8 12 CRITICAL II 3 4 7 11 15 MODERATE III 5 9 10 14 16 NEGLIGIBLE IV 13 17 18 19 20 R I S K L E V E L S (1-20) 1-LOWEST AND 20-HIGHEST Since the probability is linked directly to the results of experience, the fact that an event occurs, you can change the probability of others. The process of making data on fire history, explore and further tests illustrates this principle (Zhang, 2013). The probability that event A occurs if the B event has occurred is called conditional probability defined and this definition is consistent, i.e. meets the probability axioms. Conclusion The models used in Melbourne Fire Brigade are effective and are stilling doing great service to the community at large. However, as illustrated in the first model few alterations ought to be done to eensure faster and timely response to fire risk. Also the station has a structure that is ideally focused to the local people and through use of probality index they ought to asses their alternatives in future. The risk register as shown has the capability to summarise data entry and it is easier to retrieve information in future with it regularly visited by any assigned groupor individual. References Chen, J. Sun, C. (2010). Nanoparticles: Aspects of Safety and Risk Management. AMR, 113-116, 222-225. De Marchi, B. (2003). 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